Nigeria’s economic system grew by an estimated 3.7 per cent within the first half of 2025, largely fuelled by elevated crude oil manufacturing and improved circumstances within the manufacturing and providers sectors.
The expansion estimate is predicated on the most recent Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) report compiled by S&P International and launched on Tuesday.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Fairness Analysis, West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, stated, “Insights from the month-to-month PMIs and crude oil manufacturing information from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Fee recommend an economic system that grew by an estimated 3.7 per cent y/y in H1 2025, supported by increased crude oil manufacturing and improved progress in manufacturing and providers, whereas agriculture continues to lag its long-term common progress charge of three.6 per cent.”
Oni added that Nigeria’s economic system continues to be on monitor to develop by 3.5 per cent in actual phrases for the 12 months. Nonetheless, post-GDP rebasing could increase this to round 4.2 per cent. “We nonetheless count on the Nigerian economic system to develop by 3.5 per cent y/y in actual phrases in 2025, however post-GDP rebasing could amplify this progress to 4.2 per cent y/y,” he stated.
He additionally projected a drop in rates of interest over the subsequent two years. “Provided that inflation is anticipated to stay softer in comparison with the 2024 common, rates of interest are prone to be decrease this 12 months and subsequent. We count on a 150–200 bps charge minimize in 2025 and a 200–250 bps minimize in 2026,” Oni defined.
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The World {Bank} has additionally maintained its progress projection of three.6 per cent for Nigeria in 2025, barely increased than the three.4 per cent progress recorded in 2024. That is beneath the Central Bank of Nigeria’s forecast of 4.17 per cent and effectively beneath the Nigerian {Economic} Summit Group’s 5.5 per cent prediction made in January.
By way of enterprise exercise, the June PMI confirmed a slight cooling. The index dropped to 51.6 from 52.7 in Might, indicating progress for the seventh month working however at a slower tempo.
“The place output rose, respondents linked this to increased new orders and the acquisition of recent prospects. Certainly, new elevated solidly in June, although the tempo of growth slowed to a five-month low,” the report famous.
Regardless of the slowdown, enterprise confidence improved, with sentiment reaching its highest stage since August 2022. Firms cited deliberate expansions and infrastructure investments as causes for his or her optimism.
Whereas employment remained secure, work backlogs continued to rise, primarily on account of materials shortages, delayed funds, and erratic electrical energy provide. Supply delays had been additionally reported in some areas on account of poor street circumstances.
The PMI report, based mostly on a survey of round 400 companies throughout agriculture, manufacturing, development, providers, retail, mining, and wholesale sectors, has been an everyday {economic} barometer since January 2014.
