By Abiodun Alade
In simply 12 months, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has shifted Nigeria from gas importer to regional power provider, stabilised its forex, slashed gas prices, and sparked an industrial revival. As Africa’s largest refinery marks its first yr of operation, it stands as a daring image of personal ambition driving nationwide transformation.
One yr in the past at this time, a long-standing paradox started to unravel in Nigeria.
For a long time, regardless of being Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria was closely reliant on imported refined petroleum merchandise, significantly Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), generally referred to as petrol. While the nation exported crude oil, it re-imported gas at a premium, making a pricey and unsustainable cycle. The outcome was predictable: gas shortage, lengthy queues, ballooning import payments, subsidy rip-off, smuggling of petrol and a nationwide economic system perpetually tethered to international oil market volatility.
But on 3 September 2024, that story started to vary with the graduation of manufacturing of petrol on the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a privately constructed megaproject that has, in a single yr, begun to redefine the nation’s power panorama and with it, a lot of the broader economic system. The refinery can also be producing diesel, jet gas, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) amongst different merchandise.
From Scarcity to Surplus
Located on the sting of the Atlantic within the Lekki Free Trade Zone simply outdoors Lagos, the $20 billion refinery is the most important single-train facility, able to processing 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Its commissioning final yr was heralded as a possible turning level for Nigeria. Twelve months on, such optimism was not misplaced.
Fuel shortages, as soon as a near-ritual throughout vacation seasons and election cycles, have largely disappeared. Petrol in addition to diesel, and cooking gasoline costs have dropped, stabilising transport and family power prices. In a rustic the place inflation has been stubbornly excessive, this has provided a uncommon and tangible type of aid.
Moreover, Nigeria has remarkably shed its label as Africa’s prime gas importer, a title it held for many years. That distinction now belongs to South Africa.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu hailed the refinery as “a remarkable achievement” and “a phenomenal project of our time,” underscoring its significance to Nigeria’s industrial and {economic} progress.
“This is more than what you see; it’s about what you can envision and build,” says Pan African Banker and Fintech professional, Patrick Akinwuntan. “Dangote’s success with this refinery teaches us that audacious leadership can overcome the biggest obstacles”
A Lifeline for the Naira
The refinery’s affect extends past gas pumps and tank farms. By considerably decreasing Nigeria’s reliance on gas imports, the nation has saved an estimated $25–$30 billion yearly in international alternate, a staggering quantity for an economic system often grappling with forex crises.
This shift has helped stabilise the Naira, which has gained modest floor in opposition to main currencies for the primary time in years. With much less demand for {dollars} to pay for refined gas imports, the Central Bank has discovered some respiratory house in managing alternate charge volatility.
Furthermore, by exporting surplus refined merchandise to neighbouring West African nations, the refinery has created a brand new stream of international alternate earnings, contributing to a uncommon surplus in Nigeria’s stability of funds in early 2025.
In September 2024, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, acknowledged that lifting petrol from the refinery can flip round Nigeria’s dollar-starved economic system
“This is also expected to moderate foreign exchange demand for importation of refined petroleum products, with a positive spillover on external reserve and improvement in the overall balance of payment position,” he added.
He added that CBN Monetary Policy Committee expressed optimism that it’s going to reasonable transportation prices and considerably help the easing of meals value pressures within the brief to medium time period.
GDP Growth and Job Creation
The refinery is projected so as to add roughly $15 billion yearly to Nigeria’s GDP, representing a significant infusion of actual sector progress at a time when the economic system remains to be recovering from the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of forex devaluations, and a pricey gas subsidy phase-out.
On the employment entrance, over 570,000 direct and oblique jobs have been created by way of the refinery’s operations and its wider worth chain, together with logistics, provide providers, upkeep, and development. Entire communities have emerged across the facility, supported by new roads, energy infrastructure, and water programs that had been beforehand non-existent.
More Than Oil: A Platform for Industrialisation
Beyond the numbers, the Dangote Refinery is repositioning Nigeria for deeper industrial growth. By producing key by-products reminiscent of polypropylene, base oils, and jet gas, the ability is stimulating progress in manufacturing, plastics, aviation, lubricants, and agro-processing.
It has additionally develop into a centre for abilities switch and technological studying, providing on-the-job coaching to hundreds of Nigerian engineers and technicians who beforehand lacked entry to superior refining expertise. In a rustic the place “brain drain” is a persistent difficulty, this represents a quiet however vital funding in human capital.
“The Dangote Group has become a nurturing ground for Nigerian engineers, scientists, and technicians, many of whom have gone on to work as expatriates in various countries,” famous Funmi Sessi, chairperson of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Lagos State chapter.
She famous that this isn’t nearly oil. It’s about information, competence, and sovereignty.
The Road Ahead
While the refinery’s first yr has delivered much-needed progress, the street forward will not be with out hurdles. Crude oil provide consistency, export logistics, and continued importation of substandard petroleum merchandise persist.
Still, for a lot of Nigerians, the shift from power dependency to relative stability is nothing in need of monumental.
“One year in, and it’s already hard to imagine going back to how things were,” says Energy analyst Ibukun Phillips. “For once, the future feels like something we can build not just wait for.”
A New Chapter for Nigeria and Africa
As the world’s power panorama evolves, Nigeria’s success in refining its personal crude and exporting surplus gas provides classes for different resource-rich however import-dependent international locations throughout the Global South. The Dangote Refinery is not any silver bullet, however it’s a highly effective demonstration of what can occur when ambition, capital, and execution align in the appropriate place on the proper time.
President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, Dr Omar Touray, lauded the refinery as a “beacon of hope for Africa’s future” and an indication of what the non-public sector might obtain in driving regional industrialisation.
In one yr, one refinery has shifted the trajectory of a nation. And it could solely be the start.
Abiodun, a communications specialist writes from Lagos
