There has been an uneasy ceasefire between the US and Iran after heavy US-Israel strikes failed to produce a regime collapse in Tehran, leading to negotiations and exchange of peace proposals between the two sides since early April.
Through the ceasefire, the US government has effectively imposed a double blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian oil-exporting ports in an attempt to inflict economic pain on Tehran and to force the oil-rich country back to the negotiating table.
Over the weekend, Trump also unveiled a new plan called Project Freedom, which aims to encourage commercial ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz under the guidance of the American military.
But experts warn that the new plan may struggle to persuade shipping companies to operate in the dangerous waters of Hormuz, as Iran retains significant military capabilities, from its so-called Mosquito fleet of small boats to the ability to mine the Strait, all of which could disrupt commercial shipping across the region.
Dania Koleilat Khatib, a specialist in US-Arab relations and co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese non-governmental organisation, describes Trump’s new plan as “not sustainable, very expensive and not commercially viable”.
In a recent Truth Social post, however, Trump appeared optimistic that the plan could work, saying “for the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States,” the American army “will guide” commercial ships “safely out of these restricted waterways”.
Despite the US government’s confidence in the new plan’s feasibility, military analysts note that America may not have sufficient assets to enforce a large-scale guidance mission across the Gulf.
Trump’s call for an international alliance to open the Strait of Hormuz has so far generated little enthusiasm among NATO allies.
“Project Freedom is more of a gimmick to calm energy markets after the price of crude oil has reached such a high level and is expected to rise more,” Khatib tells TRT World.
Then, can the US blockade—backed by the new “Project Freedom”—persuade the Iranian leadership to reach a deal with Washington?
“I doubt Iran will be persuaded. It’s looking for alternative routes like Pakistan to export its oil. Iran is quite resilient against a blockade because it has been under sanctions since 1979,” Khatib responds.
The US blockade will not be “a determining factor” in pushing Iran back to negotiations, she argues, because Iran has spent decades learning how to work around sanctions.
“Now the conflict has turned into a war of attrition in which both sides will try to maximise the other’s costs to force them to give up,” she says.
In such a war of attrition, time may favour Iran, she notes, particularly given US sensitivity to rising oil prices.
This could “put pressure” on the Trump administration ahead of the November midterms, especially as his approval ratings have recently hit new lows.
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Like Khatib, Luciano Zaccara, a Gulf-based political analyst on Iran, has reservations about the blockade’s ability to revive talks. However, he suggests “it may eventually” push both sides back to the negotiation table.
“But Tehran will not negotiate from a position perceived as humiliation or capitulation,” Zaccara tells TRT World.
“Iran will seek talks that preserve some strategic leverage, especially regarding uranium enrichment and deterrence capacity. In that sense, the blockade can create incentives for diplomacy, but it can also harden Iran’s public negotiating posture at the same time.”
More isolated than before?
Experts are sceptical that a US blockade can persuade Tehran to return to the negotiating table, arguing that it may instead deepen Iran’s isolation compared to the period before the American-Israeli attacks and subsequent measures.
Iran has nearly 7,000 km of land borders with neighbouring countries, meaning “the importation of necessary goods will not be significantly impacted” by the blockade or the new “Project Freedom,” says Mohammed Eslami, a political scientist at European University Institute.
He adds that Iranian exports, particularly oil, are not limited to the Persian Gulf.
Iran operates several functioning ports along the Sea of Oman coastline and has recently expanded land routes through Pakistan, facilitating the import and export of oil and other goods, including trade with China, Eslami says.
“This is another miscalculation by Trump and his advisors, who are more of real estate agents than politicians and political analysts.,” Eslami argues.
“If a full-scale war that represents the most brutal air campaigns in the history of humanity has not forced Iran to surrender, how can a semi-functional sea blockade convince Iranian leaders to surrender?”
Other experts similarly note that although the blockade is imposing economic strain, reducing revenues and increasing internal pressure, there is little evidence that it is breaking the Iranian system’s political resistance.
“Iran has decades of experience adapting to sanctions and external pressure, and historically these situations often strengthen hardline factions rather than produce immediate concessions,” Zaccara says.
“So the blockade is creating serious pressure, but pressure does not automatically translate into political surrender.”
There are also emerging signs that the US blockade might not be effective in preventing Iranian oil exports, as maritime traffic data indicate that more than 50 Iranian vessels crossed the blockade within a 72-hour period last week, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.
