WASHINGTON — As Washington debates whether the recent cease-fire with Iran reflects strategic restraint or strategic drift, retired US Colonel David Des Roches says the broader trajectory of the conflict tells a different story.
Des Roches, the former director of Arabian Peninsula Policy at the Pentagon and now a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C., argues that Iran is losing the long game — and that its decline as a regional power began long before the latest war.
In an interview with RFE/RL, Des Roches said that despite Tehrans efforts to portray the war as a success, the Islamic Republic has emerged weaker militarily, more isolated diplomatically, and increasingly vulnerable economically.
RFE/RL: Lets start with the Iran talks. Mediators in Doha described the latest round as positive, but there was no breakthrough on the bigger strategic issues. Negotiators focused on shipping and financial issues rather than the nuclear file or regional power. Does that suggest both sides have less leverage than many expected?
David Des Roches:Yes, I think you can make that case. We dont really know whats going on, but there are a couple of problems here for both sides.
First off, both sides are desperate to portray this as a win. Both sides are saying, we won, the other side didnt. That obviously makes it hard to come to an agreement when both are trying to impose conditions the other says it cant accept.
The second problem is were not really sure whos in charge in Iran. Negotiators will say one thing, and then different IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] officers or members of parliament will say, no, we cant accept this, we cant accept that.
