A social media post by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif set a 24-hour clock ticking on July 13 as he said a deal between Washington and Tehran was closer than ever before, but the fragility of the cease-fire in the Middle East was underlined by further clashes in Lebanon and a reported strike on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile reports by Iranian news agencies cast doubt on Sharifs timeline by quoting a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying the signing of a deal will not be tomorrow.
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Sharifs remarks followed a slew ofstatements, posts, and commentsthe previous day by top officials on both sides of the conflict, including US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, indicating diplomatic progress.
Officials in Washington had also briefed RFE/RL that a deal was coming together.
But there have been false dawns before in the twisting course of the conflict that began with US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28.
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Previous optimism has dissipated amid a series of recent breaches of the cease-fire that began on April 8 and a return to belligerent rhetoric from key players.
More kinetic activity was reported on June 13.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a shipping security monitor, reported that a tanker had been hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman overnight.
The crew are reported safe, it said. Vessels are advised to transit with caution.
Meanwhile the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) pounded targets in Lebanon where they are fighting Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy regarded by both Israel and the United States as a terrorist organization. The IDF also reported incoming fire and sirens wailed in northern Israel.
Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly said that a deal with Washington must include a truce in Lebanon.
Countdown To A Deal
US and Iranian negotiators have not met since they held direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11-12. Those talks ended without an agreement but in the two months since then the two sides have been exchanging messages aimed at drawing up a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) via Pakistani mediators.
Given Pakistans central role, Sharifs comments have attracted a lot of attention.
A final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached, he wrote on social media on June 12. Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.
One of the next steps that Sharif mentioned appears to be where and how the MoU is signed.
Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week, Sharif wrote on June 13, in another post that said finalization was expected within 24 hours.
But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei subsequently suggested that the process may take longer.
The exact time of signing the memorandum will not be tomorrow, he said less than two hours after Sharif’s comments, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency. Because of the other sides hesitancy, we must be cautious in making any statements about this process.
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Each side has offered different views on where and how a deal will be sealed, with Iran also speaking of a digital signing while a White House official told RFE/RL on June 12 that mediators were still considering an in-person signing ceremony in Europe in the coming days.
These are trivial differences compared to the huge divergence of demands each side appears to have on the substantive issues.
Its been reported that a way around this has been found in which the initial MoU deals with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and waters.
This would leave tougher issues, like Irans nuclear program, its stocks of highly enriched uranium, and the fate of US sanctions on Iran, for later rounds of negotiations.
But this has not been officially confirmed.
Iran’s Brutal Crackdown
Meanwhile, reports from Iran on June 13 suggested an intense crackdown on political opposition within the country, that began during mass protests in January, was continuing unabated.
The Iranian Writers’ Association announcedYousef Ansari, a poet and novelist arrested on January 8, had received a sentence of four months in prison plus another eight months suspended.
RFE/RLsRadio Fardalearned that Fereydoun Farahani, a music professor and visiting professor of architecture at Pars University, had been arrested for social media posts he made during the demonstrations.
He had posted a song called “In Praise of the Nation’s Desire for Freedom” on his Instagram.
In Isfahan Province the judiciary announced that 100 traitors would have their property confiscated, without providing any further details.
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For several weeks now, the Iranian authorities have announced similar measures against hundreds of people.
Meanwhile, also on June 13, Tasnim reported a suspect had been arrested for being in contact with foreign espionage elements.
Another part of the crackdown has been the increasing use of a new law introduced following the 12-day war with Israel last year, expanding penalties for alleged espionage.
Some of those charged with spying have been hanged, along with dozens of other political prisoners, in recent weeks.
The scale of the repression, which began with security forces killing thousands of protesters in January, has drawn widespread international condemnation.
Deal Or No Deal? Nervous Wait Continues Amid Fragile Cease-Fire
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