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The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has held its primaries ahead of the 2027 general elections. However, feelers from across the country show that the event has not been smooth at several areas, both in the North and South. In several places, there are allegations of rigging, vote-buying and other forms of manipulation. Many have wondered if the party would indeed survive the crises that are emerging.
The crises were not really unexpected as many had predicted such with the massive defections to the ruling party from opposition parties, especially the crisis-ridden Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Given the hullabaloo trailing the APC primaries, many people are predicting a possible implosion of the ruling party at … primary period, during or after the general elections.
The defectors were said to have displaced the legacy members of the party, especially where the state governors joined the APC with all their state apparatus and structures, including the state executives and the legislatures.
The party, according to a guideline for the primaries, adopted the direct primary mode that would allow all registered members participate in choosing those who will fly the party’s flags in the various elective offices.
However, media reports indicate that the primaries, although smooth in several states, were riddled with crises in some states, such as Kwara, Delta and even some parts of Lagos.
The Surulere State Constituency 1 was on the spotlight as several social media postings showed the incumbent House of Assembly members and Nollywood actor, Desmond Elliot, making statements and even begging his constituents.
But, at the end of the day, Elliot reportedly withdrew from the race, alleging intimidation. His withdrawal enabled a former aide to Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Barakat Odunuga-Bakare, to emerge unopposed.
CLAIMS AND COUNTER-CLAIMS
In Surulere Constituency II, a lawyer, Damilola Ayinde-Marshall, daughter of Fuji music icon Wasiu Ayinde Marshall, emerged as APC candidate. Several aspirants reportedly stepped down to enable Damilola, Senior Special Assistant to Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on Tourism, Arts and Culture, to emerge victorious.
In the Delta North Senatorial District, a bitter war of words is still raging over the defeat of the incumbent, Senator Ned Nwoko, by former Governor and ex-Senator, Ifeanyi Okowa.
Nwoko, who defected to the APC long before Governor Sheriff Francis Orohwedor Oborevwori took all the PDP structures to the ruling party, has been crying foul, claiming that the election was manipulated and rigged in favour of former Governor Okowa.
This is as the Okowa’s camp and the party’s state executive claim that Nwoko shunned the party’s leadership, the stakeholders and even the royal fathers, without ‘consulting’ anybody. They stated that on the contrary Okowa had maintained ‘good relationship’ with the party leaders, the stakeholders and royal fathers, even attending burials to empathise with the people.
In Kwara State, the primaries were not as peaceful, as there has been palpable tension following the rejection of the primaries by some of the aspirants. They have called President Bola Tinubu to save the party from disintegration in the state.
However, the party seems to have managed its governorship primaries better, although most of the candidates emerged through consensus, following serious negotiations which saw almost all the incumbents returned except in Rivers, where the Governor, Siminalaye Fubara and the APC candidate in the 2023 election, Toye Cole withdrew.
Their withdrawal followed the realisation that there was no way they could win the primaries following the alleged takeover of both the APC and PDP structures in the state by former Governor Nyesom Wike and his supporters in what is being termed as Rainbow Coalition.
The APC, indeed, declared House of Representatives Minority Leader, Kingsley Chinda, said to be the anointed candidate of Wike, who interestingly is still a PDP member, although working under President Tinubu as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister as its governorship candidate after both Fubara and had withdrawn.
ALLEGED INTIMIDATION
In all these states, several aspirants were allegedly forced to resign having realised that there was no way they could win the primaries if they were allowed to go into open contest. The fear now is that these people who lost out in the primaries may work against the party as the time of the elections proper.
In Benue, the two warring camps of the governor, Fr Hyacinth Alia, and the Secretary of the Government of the Federation (SCF), George Akume, hurriedly patched the existing cracks for the governor to emerge unopposed, with members of his camp emerge by consensus while only Akume’s wife Hon. Regina Akume, emerged out of respect for him.
Speaking with Sunday Independent on the happenings in the APC, Chief Kenneth Udeze, the National Chairman of the Action Alliance, (AA), maintained that an outright implosion of ruling is unlikely right now, even as he stressed that the APC is under real stress, and that the next few weeks will determine if it stays contained.
On why an implosion of APC is not imminent, Udeze, a lawyer stated: “Power concentrates disputes: As the ruling party, the APC still controls federal patronage and the presidency. That gives the national leadership leverage to broker deals, offer concessions, and pull aggrieved aspirants back in.
“History of managed chaos: The party has gone through messy primaries in 2015, 2019, and 2023 and still held together for the general election. The ‘hullabaloo’ is partly standard intra-party bargaining.
“Time pressure: With timelines tight before the next election cycle, defections carry a high cost. Most politicians prefer to negotiate a soft landing inside the party than run as outsiders.
“Where the risk comes in: Defections and sabotage: If high-profile losers feel the process was rigged and do not get placated, you could see quiet defections to opposition parties or reduced mobilisation for the official candidates.
“Factional entrenchment: Repeated primaries disputes in key states can harden factions that operate as parallel structures, weakening campaign coordination.
“Voter perception: If the public sees the primaries as illegitimate, it erodes the party’s ‘discipline and order’ brand and depresses turnout.
“What to watch next: Whether the National Working Committee moves fast on reconciliation, how Tinubu uses his influence as party leader, and if losers accept compensatory positions.
“The ‘hullabaloo’ around the APC primaries reflects real friction, but a full implosion of the ruling party is unlikely in the short term.
“What is driving the tensions are reports from the May 2026 primaries which show widespread complaints of imposition, disqualification of popular aspirants, and committees populated by loyalists of national officers.
“In Zamfara, aspirant Sani Shinkafi warned of a repeat of 2019 when irregular primaries cost APC all elective positions. The North-Central Forum said over 50% of members were angry, alleging targeted disqualification of frontrunners.
“High-profile losses and 44 disqualified senatorial aspirants have also fuelled protests in Ekiti, Lagos, and Edo. This is unacceptable.
NO CHANCE OF IMPLOSION
On why implosion is not imminent, Udeze maintained that APC has absorbed a wave of defections from PDP, LP, and NNPP, including five governors and 50 lawmakers.
He added that the numerical strength gives the party leverage and access to state machinery. President Tinubu has also directed the national leadership to review allegations of imposition, and party officials insist internal reconciliation mechanisms are working.
The risk: “If grievances are not addressed, aggrieved members could defect or sabotage the party in 2027. My candid advice is that APC should not be seen as an election-winning vehicle rather than a cohesive ideological platform, making it vulnerable once patronage and power-sharing break down.
“The outlook is that we may expect continued infighting and legal battles, but not a collapse—unless the party fails to manage consensus disputes and excludes too many stakeholders ahead of 2027.
“My appeal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is to ensure that these disputes are resolved amicably with dispatch.”
Hon. Dennis Adikwuru, an APC chieftain in Imo State, said: “I will not agree with you on any hullabaloo in the APC primaries across the country. I will rather state that the APC primaries have rekindled internal democracy based on popular choice through the consensus arrangement.
“There have been no reports of skirmishes and violence of any kind trailing the APC primaries, but rather voluntary withdrawals by aspirants who subsequently endorse the popular choice.
“Even in few areas where the consensus arrangement failed, elections conducted still saw credible candidates emerge without rancour. Notwithstanding the consensus option, elections were conducted through Option A4 in all Ward Collation centres.
“Option A4 undoubtedly represents the most transparent electoral mode, representing free and fair elections. I do not see any implosion or foresee anyone in the party because the primaries have united the aspirants and promoted loyalty and discipline in the party.”
“Hon. Dr John Okoro Kome, who believed that the APC is destroying democracy in Africa, stated that before the hullabaloo that trailed the recent APC primaries nationwide, it is well known by the generality of Nigerians that “a leopard cannot change its skin. There is this adage that says: What smells in a goat is actually inside the goat. “The All Progressive Congress (APC) has shown that decorum is not a part of the game in its operational values.
DOUBTS, DISCONTENT
Hon. Kome stressed that except the leadership of the party gets ‘Born Again’ and puts its house in proper order, there is possible implosion awaiting the party no matter how much they pacify its members, which will in turn strengthen the opposition in readiness for APC defeat in the 2027 general elections.
He stated: “You cannot predict what political revolution might take place hereafter. Pacifying people with money might eventually empower the aggrieved to financially fight the ruling party at the 2027 polls.
“You cannot deceive Nigerians with political positions afterwards and they will believe you because they know what APC is capable of doing after acquiring Power …”Once beaten, twice shy”, goes the saying.
“With the political happenings in the ruling party in Nigeria, other African countries who usually copy from the Giant Of Africa and are learning very fast on how to rig primary and general elections in their respective counties inasmuch Nigeria gets away with it, thereby destroying democracy in Africa.
Prof John Ebhomien, a chieftain of the APC, stated: “The ‘hullabaloo’ around the APC primaries reflects real friction, but a full implosion of the ruling party is unlikely in the short term.
“What is driving the tension are reports from the May 2026 primaries which show widespread complaints of imposition, disqualification of popular aspirants, and committees populated by loyalists of national officers.
“In Zamfara, aspirant Sani Shinkafi warned of a repeat of 2019 when irregular primaries cost APC all elective positions. The North-Central Forum said over 50% of members are angry, alleging targeted disqualification of frontrunners.
“High-profile losses and 44 disqualified senatorial aspirants have also fuelled protests in Ekiti, Lagos, and Edo. This is unacceptable.
“Why implosion is not imminent: APC has absorbed a wave of defections from PDP, LP, and NNPP, including five governors and 50 lawmakers. That numerical strength gives the party leverage and access to state machinery.
“President Tinubu has also directed the national leadership to review allegations of imposition, and party officials insist internal reconciliation mechanisms are working.
“The risk: If grievances are not addressed, aggrieved members could defect or sabotage the party in 2027. My candid advice is that APC should not be seen as an election-winning vehicle rather than a cohesive ideological platform, making it vulnerable once patronage and power-sharing break down.
“The outlook is that we may expect continued infighting and legal battles, but not a collapse—unless the party fails to manage consensus disputes and excludes too many stakeholders ahead of 2027.
“My appeal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is to ensure that these disputes are resolved amicably with dispatch.”
