The rapid escalation in hostilities between Iran and the US-Israel alliance since Sunday is being driven by Tehran’s growing confidence that it can arise like a mythical phoenix from the ashes of war, strategically stronger than ever in the Middle East.
To achieve this objective, Tehran has enacted a tactical shift in its “unity of the theatres” strategy involving its Axis of Resistance allies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq: Israeli and US attempts to decapitate one head of this hydra-like monster, Hezbollah, would incur the wrath of the other heads, Iran and the Houthis.
So when Israel bombed a Hezbollah command centre in the crowded southern Dahiyeh suburbs of Beirut on Sunday, Iran and the Houthis retaliated by carrying out limited, largely symbolic missile drone attacks against Israel.
This unprecedented tactical response surprised Israel and the US – and exposed tensions between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over who “calls the shots” in the war.
While obviously insufficient in scope to deter subsequent escalations by the US against Iran, and by Israel against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Tehran nonetheless pushed Trump into leaning on Netanyahu to wrap up Israel’s retaliatory air strikes in 24 hours.
The Islamic Republic celebrated this as the foiling of Israeli and US efforts to decouple the conflict with Hezbollah from negotiations to end the Iran war.
