In September 2025, companies in Nigeria sustained a constructive trajectory, with the Current Business Performance remaining within the enlargement area since December 2024. The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) reported a marginal rise to 107.9 factors, up from 107.3 in August 2025. This enchancment displays a mix of sectoral dynamics, notably a rebound in Agriculture, supported by the harvest season, and regular exercise within the Services sector.
A sectoral evaluate confirmed that every one 5 broader {economic} actions stayed within the enlargement zone. Agriculture posted the strongest restoration, rising sharply to 107.3 from a contractionary
95.6 in August, whereas Non-manufacturing (114.5), Trade (107.6), and Manufacturing (102.5) all expanded, albeit at a slower tempo in comparison with August.
Key BCM sub-indices, reminiscent of funding, exports, entry to credit score, and costs, registered marginal positive aspects relative to August 2025, pointing to bettering sentiment in capital formation and exterior commerce. Importantly, current enhancements in price of doing enterprise and enter costs recommend a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures on companies. However, this constructive development stays fragile, as financing constraints, erratic electrical energy provide, excessive business property prices, unclear coverage indicators, and protracted insecurity proceed to undermine enterprise confidence and funding urge for food.
Comment from Stanbic IBTC
The present enterprise efficiency of Nigerian companies improved barely in September relative to August, buoyed by each the Agriculture sector and Services, each of which neutralised the modest exercise softening in Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, and Trade sectors. A breakdown of the elements of the present enterprise efficiency exhibits an enchancment within the common enterprise state of affairs, a better degree of demand, improved employment situations and larger entry to credit score relative to the prior month. Besides, the price of doing enterprise has declined for the third consecutive month, whereas the worth index has remained beneath the 100 index factors psychological threshold since November 2024, implying underlying value pressures as moderating. This is no surprise as gasoline price and trade fee pressures, which negatively impacted costs in 2024, have seen restricted value actions up to now in 2025. Notably, the trade fee appreciated by 5.5% year-to-date (as of 2nd October) relative to 40.9% depreciation in 2024 and gasoline price declined by 13.8% in 7m:25 relative to 77.0% value improve in 2024.
We estimate that the oil and non-oil sectors might have grown by 14.3% y/y and 4.4% y/y, respectively, translating into total GDP progress of 4.5% y/y in Q3:25. We now elevate our 2025 progress forecast to 4.0% y/y, from 3.5% y/y, after absolutely accounting for the affect of GDP rebasing, and after surprisingly good Q2:25 GDP progress. Going into 2026, the non-oil sector’s progress ought to stay robust amid a possible discount in rates of interest and low inflation, each of which ought to help combination demand and personal funding. Further, a possible much less trade fee volatility in 2025 and 2026 based mostly on our present estimates ought to help progress throughout commerce, manufacturing, actual property, and development. Aside from that, the forward-linkage affect of Dangote Refinery ought to profit manufacturing progress within the medium time period. The IMF expects the Dangote Refinery to extend non-oil GDP progress by c.1.5% in 2026. Oil refining has already grown for a 3rd consecutive quarter, to fifteen.78% y/y in Q2:25, from 11.51% y/y in Q1:25, though its contribution to the manufacturing sector stays insignificant, at 0.1%.”
