Nigeria’s aviation industry suffered its first contraction in nearly two years in the first quarter of 2026, with the air transport subsector posting a sharp reversal that erased much of the momentum built during its 2025 recovery.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed that air transport contracted by 47.3% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2026, compared with a 57.21% expansion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
The performance marked the subsector’s first nominal contraction since the 8.92% decline recorded in Q1 2024, ending seven consecutive quarters of growth.
The downturn came despite Nigeria’s economy growing by 3.89% in real terms during the quarter and the broader transportation and storage sector remaining in positive territory.
The latest figures show the aviation sector’s nominal output almost halved within one year.
The sector’s footprint within the economy also weakened. Air transport accounted for 0.05% of nominal GDP in Q1 2026, down from 0.11% a year earlier, reflecting both lower activity levels and a reduced contribution to national output.
The weakness was equally evident after adjusting for inflation. Real output declined by 7.62% year-on-year, worsening from the 0.81% contraction recorded in Q1 2025. At constant 2019 prices, aviation output fell to N33.66 billion from N36.44 billion a year earlier, indicating a genuine decline in activity rather than a price-driven adjustment.
Despite the aviation slump, transportation and storage continued to contribute to economic growth in nominal and real terms.
The overall transportation and storage sector maintained positive growth of 6.51% in nominal terms during Q1 2026. However, this was significantly lower than the 53.56% growth recorded in Q1 2025 and the 39.62% expansion posted in Q4 2025, highlighting the extent to which aviation dragged on sector performance.
The sector contributed 1.36% to nominal GDP, down from 1.51% in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and 1.55% in the preceding quarter.
It recorded 7.41% real growth in Q1 2026, although this represented a moderation from 14.08% in the same period of 2025 and 21.25% in the previous quarter.
According to the NBS, transportation and storage accounted for 1.02% of real GDP in Q1 2026, slightly above the 0.99% share recorded a year earlier and unchanged from the previous quarter.
The figures suggest that while Nigeria’s transportation sector remains supported by road logistics, courier services and water transport, the aviation industry has emerged as a major pressure point, reversing nearly two years of expansion and significantly weakening the sector’s overall growth trajectory.
Naijaonpoint earlier reported that Nigeria’s aviation sector is facing mounting pressure as taxes, fees and regulatory levies consume as much as 35% of airline revenues, according to the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), which warned that the burden is undermining the sustainability of domestic carriers.
The CPPE noted that the cumulative impact of ticket sales charges, cargo fees, passenger service charges, landing and parking charges, inspection fees, as well as duties on aircraft and spare parts, has significantly eroded airline profitability and weakened the sector’s resilience.
