Britain holds a unique vote on Thursday that could trigger the endgame for Labour leader Keir Starmer’s beleaguered premiership, or win him a reprieve.
Labour Party veteran and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is looking to triumph in a parliamentary by-election so that he can then try to replace Starmer as prime minister.
Pollsters expect Burnham to win the historic contest to represent the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, but he faces a tough fight from the hard-right Reform UK party.
“Almost undoubtedly it’s in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister,” political scientist John Curtice said.
“If Burnham does win, his path to 10 Downing Street looks to be relatively assured. If they deny him the opportunity, it may be that Starmer will survive, at least for the time being,” he told AFP.
Starmer, in power since July 2024, has been clinging to power by his fingernails since Labour suffered a drubbing in local and regional elections last month.
He has been rocked by several policy U-turns and a scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to Washington.
The 63-year-old prime minister has endured several ministerial resignations and rock-bottom personal poll ratings, with Reform leading national surveys for over a year.
But Starmer, an ex-lawyer who has refused to quit, insists his landslide election victory over the Conservatives 21 months ago gives him a five-year mandate to govern.
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King of the North
Impatience within the centre-left Labour party ramped up in May when Labour MP Josh Simons announced he would stand down so Burnham could try to return to parliament and run for leader.
While Makerfield’s 76,000 electorate typically votes Labour, Simons won a majority of only around 5,300 at the 2024 general election.
Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage, also won every council ward in the predominantly white, working-class area during last month’s council polls.
But the personal popularity of Burnham, a three-term mayor of Greater Manchester nicknamed the “King of the North”, is likely to see him triumph over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, polls predict.
Local plumber Kenyon has also been dogged by offensive remarks he previously made about women, while the fringe Restore Britain party is expected to split the hard-right vote.
The polls open at 7:00 am (0600GMT) and close at 10:00 pm, with counting to begin straight away.
