Oil prices made marginal gains on Thursday as buyers sought to assure supply over the long Independence Day weekend in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States.
Brent futures settled at $71.80 a barrel, up 23 cents or 0.32 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $68.69 a barrel, up 11 cents or 0.16 per cent.
Also, Qatar, which is mediating talks between the US and Iran, said progress has been made toward a permanent peace agreement ending the four-month war that shut the key oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The talks made “positive progress” on matters related to the memorandum that halted the war in June, a Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a post on X. There was no sign yet that the sides made headway towards a lasting peace.
The next meeting between Iran and US negotiators will take place after the July 9 funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s joint military command warned on Thursday that all oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow routes approved by Iran or face an immediate and forceful response. The warning, carried by Iranian state television, also cautioned that any US interference in the waterway would prompt a rapid and decisive reaction.
Tanker traffic has recovered from the near standstill seen during the height of the conflict. However, it is well below pre-war levels. According to AP, 258 vessels transited the strait last week, up from 138 the previous week, while traffic this week has settled into roughly 30 to 60 crossings per day—still nowhere near the roughly 130 daily transits seen before the war.
Despite this, Saudi oil giant Aramco, the world’s single largest crude oil exporter, has already managed to ship at least five supertankers from Ras Tanura through the strait.
UBS cut its Brent forecasts, citing the increase in oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil is carried by tanker ships. The bank lowered its Brent crude price forecasts. It cut its third-quarter estimate by $25 per barrel to $80 and reduced its fourth-quarter forecast by $10 per barrel to $80. It trimmed its 2027 outlook by $10 per barrel to $75.
