Nepal’s sugar supply concerns are expected to deepen as reports suggest that India, once the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, may have little surplus sugar available for exports for at least the next three years.
The development could create further challenges for Nepal, which is already struggling with rising sugar prices following India’s decision to ban sugar exports until September 30, 2026.
What does the report say?
According to a Reuters report, India is likely to have very limited sugar available for export over the next three seasons. The report attributes this to the potential impact of El Niño weather conditions on sugarcane production and growing demand for ethanol, which is diverting more sugar towards biofuel production.
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As a result, millions of tonnes of sugar may be removed from global markets, affecting importing countries across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The report also noted that international sugar prices in markets such as the United Kingdom and the United States could remain elevated.
The report further warned that if India remains absent from the export market for an extended period, the global sugar trade could lose a key supplier that has traditionally helped balance supply and demand. Climate-related risks and evolving biofuel policies are already reshaping the sugar market, and India’s reduced presence could accelerate these changes.
Nepal already feeling the impact
India has already imposed a ban on sugar exports until September 30, 2026, in an effort to maintain adequate domestic supplies and keep prices under control.
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According to a report by The Kathmandu Post, Nepal’s annual sugar production once stood at around 155,000 tonnes. However, delayed payments from sugar mills prompted many farmers to stop cultivating sugarcane, reducing production to approximately 120,000 tonnes.
At the same time, Nepal’s annual sugar demand is estimated at around 300,000 tonnes, meaning the country must import nearly two-thirds of its sugar requirements.
Sugar prices rise across Nepal
The impact of India’s export restrictions is already being felt in Nepal. Within a month of the export ban, sugar prices reportedly increased by around 15 Nepali rupees per kilogram.
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A month ago, sugar was selling for about 95 Nepali rupees per kilogram. It is now being sold at approximately 110 Nepali rupees per kilogram in most retail stores across the country.
With domestic production unable to meet demand and uncertainty surrounding future imports from India, Nepal may continue to face supply pressures and higher sugar prices in the months ahead.
First published on: Jun 22, 2026 04:35 PM IST
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