FRANKFURT, Germany: The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC marks one of the most significant shifts in the global oil market in decades, potentially weakening the cartel’s ability to control supply and influence prices over the long term.
The UAE said it will formally exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, ending its membership in a group that has for decades coordinated output among major oil producers. Despite leaving, the country said it would continue to increase crude production “in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.”
For now, however, immediate price pressures are being driven by geopolitical factors. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has disrupted exports from Gulf producers, including the UAE, tightening supply and pushing prices higher.
OPEC, founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, has long sought to manage oil prices by coordinating production levels among its members. Today, the group accounts for about 40 percent of global crude output and holds more than 80 percent of proven reserves. It later expanded into OPEC+, a broader alliance that includes countries such as Russia.
The group’s goal has been to strike a balance: keeping prices high enough to support member economies without triggering recessions or reducing demand. It has also played a central role in shifting control of oil markets from Western companies to resource-rich nations.
At times, OPEC’s decisions have had dramatic global effects. In 1973, an embargo by Arab members led to a fourfold increase in oil prices and widespread fuel shortages in the United States.
The UAE’s departure highlights longstanding tensions within the group, particularly over production limits. While coordinated cuts can support prices, they also restrict how much individual members can sell, limiting revenue and market share.
The UAE has been pushing for greater flexibility, especially as global energy markets evolve. With demand expected to peak in the coming years amid the transition to renewable energy, some producers are eager to maximize output while prices remain relatively strong.
Analysts say the exit could reduce OPEC’s ability to stabilize markets. The UAE is one of the few members with significant spare production capacity, a key tool the cartel uses to adjust supply.
“A structurally weaker OPEC, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult to calibrate supply and stabilize prices,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “The net effect points to a more fragmented supply landscape and a potentially more volatile oil market over time as OPEC’s capacity to smooth imbalances diminishes.”
In the near term, however, supply constraints linked to the Hormuz disruption are likely to remain the dominant factor.
“As for crude in the here and now, all that really matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed,” said Michael Brown, research strategist at Pepperstone. “At present, it’s essentially shut, tightening supply conditions day by day and probably seeing benchmarks continue to grind higher on a daily basis as well.”
