Tensions over the critical chokepoint are escalating, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis and push the two countries towards renewed conflict — even as mediators accelerate their efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table.
The US and Iran held their first direct high-level ceasefire talks in Pakistan on April 11.
Those negotiations, aimed at resolving the conflict amidst a fragile ceasefire, continued through April 12, with the US delegation led by Vance and Iranian officials headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The core issues centre on Iran‘s nuclear programme, the control of crucial Strait of Hormuz, US sanctions, and security guarantees.
Those talks failed to yield an agreement, and a second round remains uncertain.
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‘Diplomacy hanging by thread’
Pakistan, for its part, continues its last-minute mediation efforts to bring both sides to its capital.
On Tuesday, its top diplomat Ishaq Dar urged both Iran and the US “to consider extending the ceasefire and to give dialogue and diplomacy a chance.“
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced that a formal response from Tehran confirming their attendance at peace talks in Islamabad is “still awaited“.
“Pakistan has made sincere efforts to convince the Iranian leadership to participate in the second round of talks, and these efforts continue,” Tarar wrote in a post on X.
“Diplomacy is hanging by a thread, but there is still a chance for a breakthrough,” Trita Parsi, a geopolitical analyst and executive vice president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute, tells TRT World.
Parsi argues that even if US-Iran negotiations proceed to a second round in Islamabad this week, “a more likely scenario is that talks collapse, but Trump chooses not to go back to war. Nor will he lift sanctions, but Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz. This will be a new, unstable, non-negotiated status quo.“
However, he notes that the wild cards are what Israel will do and whether President Trump intensifies the blockade on Iran, which could cause the status quo to collapse into open war once more.
“If Tehran skips the talks, the scenario above will be the most likely outcome.“
