The World Bank has projected a 60% surge in global urea prices in 2026, raising concerns over fertilizer affordability, food inflation, and agricultural productivity in developing economies.
This was disclosed in the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which warns that tightening supply conditions, rising energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions could push urea prices to some of their highest levels in decades.
In Nigeria, urea is a very common type of nitrogen-based fertilizer.
The development signals growing risks for food security and farm profitability, particularly in import-dependent economies, as higher input costs ripple through agricultural value chains.
The World Bank projects that urea prices could exceed $700 per metric tonne under adverse conditions.
The report added that supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are tightening global fertilizer supply chains.
The World Bank attributes the expected surge in urea prices to a combination of structural and geopolitical factors, particularly the rising cost of natural gas and ongoing shipping disruptions.
The World Bank noted that prolonged disruptions or escalation in geopolitical tensions could push prices beyond the $700 per metric tonne threshold, marking one of the highest real price levels since the 1970s.
The projected rise in urea prices could have significant implications for food inflation, agricultural productivity, and economic stability in developing economies.
For Nigeria, while local producers such as large-scale fertilizer plants may benefit from higher global prices, farmers could face increased production costs, potentially worsening food inflation.
In April, Naijaonpoint reported that the Dangote Group is targeting at least $40 billion in investments to fund a five-year plan to expand its fertilizer and oil refining operations.
The initiative comes amid global supply disruptions stemming from the Persian Gulf conflict, underlining the need for local production to reduce Africa’s dependence on imports.
In 2025, some farmers in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) raised concerns over the rising costs of fertilizers and agro-chemicals in Nigeria.
