LONDON – Europe is set for weeks of erratic and increasingly warm weather in May, raising the risk of storms, early season drought stress and increasing cooling demand.
Unusually mild conditions are forecast to build in northern and central Europe in early May, and trend warm across much of the continent through the end of the month, according to weather models and analysis from government and commercial forecasters.
The warming theme is set to be interrupted by a string of storm systems moving through northern and eastern Europe in the second week of May, briefly lowering temperatures 2 deg C to 4 deg C below normal, said Mr William Henneberg, a meteorologist with Commodity Weather Group.
“After that, warmth indeed returns across most of continental Europe,” he said.
If the stormy pattern develops, it will bring welcome moisture to Britain, France, Italy and Spain, which saw just 12 per cent to 17 per cent of the typical rainfall for April, said Vaisala meteorologist Steve Silver.
But that relief will likely be short-lived relief and do little to unwind abnormally dry trends in the Nordic region and the east, he added.
“That would likely not be enough to allow for significant improvements to drought conditions,” he said.
Periods of unseasonably warm, dry and sunny weather are expected to boost solar generation this week and again later in May, according to two-week and longer-range analysis from MetDesk.
Erratic wind generation is expected through mid-month, MetDesk said.
Analysis from the firm’s Mr Matt Dobson and Ms Emma Patmore show lower-than-normal wind speeds this week and sporadic slumps throughout May.
But weather models show conditions likely supporting higher wind speeds returning to the Iberian peninsula, Britain, France and Germany in the week of May 11, before possibly tailing off through the end of the month. BLOOMBERG
