LONDON, U.K.: The war in Iran has erased more than US$50 billion in global oil output in less than two months, creating one of the largest supply shocks in modern energy history and raising concerns about prolonged market disruption.
Since the conflict began in late February, over 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have been removed from the global market, according to Kpler data and Reuters calculations. Analysts say the scale of disruption could have lasting consequences for energy supply and prices worldwide.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on April 17 that the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire accord agreed in Lebanon, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed a deal to end the war would come “soon”, though the timing remains unclear.
The scale of lost supply underscores the severity of the disruption.
“Curtailing aviation demand globally for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle globally for 11 days; or no oil for the global economy for five days,” said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, describing the equivalent impact of 500 million barrels removed from the market.
The lost volumes are also roughly equal to nearly a month of oil demand in the United States or more than a month’s consumption across Europe, according to Reuters estimates. They would be enough to fuel the U.S. military for about six years or power the global shipping industry for around four months.
Production losses have been particularly severe in the Gulf region. Gulf Arab countries saw crude output fall by about eight million barrels per day in March, a level comparable to the combined production of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the world’s largest oil companies.
Refined fuel exports have also been hit. Jet fuel shipments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman dropped sharply from about 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels combined across March and April, according to Kpler data.
At average crude prices of around $100 per barrel since the conflict began, the missing volumes translate into approximately $50 billion in lost revenue, said Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler. That figure is equivalent to about one percent of Germany’s annual gross domestic product or roughly the entire economic output of countries such as Latvia or Estonia.
Even as signs of de-escalation emerge, analysts warn that recovery will be slow and uneven.
Global onshore crude inventories have already declined by about 45 million barrels in April, while production outages have reached roughly 12 million barrels per day since late March.
Restoring output, particularly from heavier crude fields in countries such as Kuwait and Iraq, could take four to five months, extending supply tightness through the summer, Rauball said.
Damage to refining capacity and key infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex, could further delay a full recovery.
