WASHINGTON — As tensions surge in the Strait of Hormuz following President Donald Trumps announcement of Project Freedom, an effort to get commercial shipping traffic flowing, the fragile cease-fire between Washington and Tehran appears increasingly strained.
Shipping giant Maersk said one of its vessels successfully transited the strait under US military protection on May 4, even as risks persist. With questions swirling over how the US Navy would secure maritime traffic under active threat, and whether the current approach can prevent a broader conflict, RFE/RL spoke with retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett.
Retired US Navy Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs
A former director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and senior intelligence official at US Joint Forces Command, Murrett is now a professor at Syracuse Universitys Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and deputy director of its Institute for Security Policy and Law.
RFE/RL: Admiral, lets begin with breaking developments in the Strait of Hormuz — US forces reportedly destroying Iranian boats, missiles flying toward the UAE, and a cease-fire hanging by a thread. From your vantage point as former head of NGA and other senior intelligence roles, are we already past the point of a fragile peace and effectively back in conflict?
Retired US Vice Admiral Robert Murrett:Great point. I would certainly say that it represents a very significant uptick in the level of conflict there. The activity that has taken place just in the last 24 hours or so is very worrisome because of what it portends for expanding the scope of the conflict. Certainly, for example, the United Arab Emirates and the two ships that were attacked close to the UAE on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz are part of that concern. But also, the interaction that took place in the Gulf itself and some of the attacks in both directions — including our own US Navy sinkingsmall boats that the Iranians had deployed — put us in a very threatening position.
RFE/RL: As this escalates, President Donald Trump is rolling out Project Freedom, but without full naval escorts. Youve said the first few days are critical. Is this plan a stabilizing move?
Murrett:The way I would say it is that anything we can do to open and ensure free transit and freedom of navigation — as we see it in the Navy — through the Strait of Hormuz is worth exploring. The idea of doing so without any kind of agreement from the Iranian side is pretty challenging, based on the maritime geography — how narrow the strait is — but also the options that Iran has for fairly significant attacks, especially with smaller vessels, unmanned aircraft, unmanned surface vessels, and even, potentially, unmanned subsurface platforms. So from a tactical standpoint, from the maritime perspective, it is difficult. But anything we can do to try to open up free navigation in the Strait as soon as possible is certainly worth pursuing.
Tactical Challenges
RFE/RL: Lets drill into that — what does a real US Navy escort operation look like under fire? How would it differ from whats being attempted right now?
Murrett:There are different ways you can do it, and based on what has happened today, there has certainly been an emphasis on airborne assets as opposed to close-quarters escorts. For example, the announcement from the White House talked about guiding ships through an additional security area closer to the southern approaches near Oman. But the point I would make is that you dont have to be in close proximity to the ships being escorted to provide security.
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The attacks we saw today involved helicopters, and Im sure there are other aircraft providing coverage. If you look at some of the Pentagons operational maps, many of the ships involved are actually outside the strait — some in the Gulf of Oman and even in the northern Arabian Sea. So its a complicated tactical situation, but the bottom line is that security can be provided at a distance, especially with strong air cover, which is a key component here.
RFE/RL: US Central Command, under Admiral Brad Cooper, says American forces are responding defensively — firing if fired upon. In such a crowded corridor, is that sustainable?
Murrett:It depends on how you define defense. I think Admiral Cooper is doing an excellent job, and I have a lot of confidence in the work being done by US Fifth Fleet. That said, it is a big challenge. There are different kinds of defensive operations, including what we call active defense. That gets into a gray area. Youre dealing with threatening tracks — on the surface, in the air, or potentially underwater — and you may have to engage them from a defensive standpoint even if theyre not an immediate, direct threat. Another key point is the challenge of protecting merchant ships. They move relatively slowly, and reassuring ship captains and, importantly, insurance companies is something were not there on yet. Most insurers are still unwilling to provide coverage for transits through the strait, and thats a major obstacle.
RFE/RL: Youve highlighted the unknowns. Which worries you most tonight: miscalculation, escalation, or economic paralysis?
Murrett:The biggest concern would be full escalation — something that uses this moment as a point of departure and completely negates the cease-fire that is loosely in effect right now. That could expand the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz and significantly increase its intensity. The second concern is whether we can provide sufficient security to allow large numbers of ships — currently bottled up in the Persian Gulf — to transit safely. That requires confidence not just from ship captains but from corporate leadership and insurers. The best way to achieve that would be some kind of agreement with Iran. As long as Iran can hold ships at risk — given the narrow geography — it will remain a very tough challenge.
The Leverage of Geography
RFE/RL: Iran appears to believe it holds the upper hand by threatening access through the Strait. From an intelligence perspective, is that leverage real?
Murrett:I would say it is real. Thats not to say it cant be mitigated, but Iran does have significant leverage due to geography and capability. At the same time, it is very much in Irans interest to keep the strait open, given how much of its economy depends on exports moving through it. Our military posture is important in creating leverage for a diplomatic solution that would allow free and open navigation.
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US Says 6 Iranian Boats Destroyed Amid Effort To Restart Ship Traffic; Iran Fires Missiles At UAE
RFE/RL: You alluded to that but lets connect that to strategy: if Iran is signaling strength through disruption, does limited US force posture — guidance without full escort — risk reinforcing Tehrans narrative?
Murrett:I wouldnt say it reinforces it, but it does reflect a realistic assessment of what Iran can do, given its coastal positioning and range of options. Its a pragmatic approach that takes into account the operational environment.
RFE/RL: Youve served at the highest levels of naval intelligence — how quickly can a situation like this spiral from ship harassment to full-scale naval confrontation?
Murrett:It can escalate very quickly — but it can also move in the other direction. Theres no question that Iran has the option to expand the conflict, and weve already seen concerning actions in the UAE over the past 24 hours. If they chose to broaden that to other regional partners, it would be extremely serious. They could ramp things up in a hurry, but at this point, I dont see clear evidence that they intend to do so — despite the concerning signals.
RFE/RL: Meanwhile, European allies are hesitating. President Macron says France wont participate. Is this reluctance a sign that if allies see strategic risks — is there something that US intelligence is seeing perhaps that they’re not?
Murrett:I wouldnt say that. Our European allies — including France and the United Kingdom — have a solid understanding of the situation. Their assessments are consistent with ours, and there is strong intelligence sharing. Countries in Asia, like Japan and South Korea, are also deeply interested in restoring free navigation through the strait. Theres broad alignment on the risks and challenges.
RFE/RL: Lets talk capabilities — European navies have specialized mine-clearing assets the U.S. currently lacks in theater. Without those, can the strait truly be secured?
Murrett:The best way to secure the strait is through a diplomatic agreement. If Iran chooses to deploy mines, unmanned systems, or swarm tactics with small boats, those are very real threats. But our understanding of those risks is shared with our allies, and theres a clear-eyed view of the challenge.
RFE/RL: If a US warship or escorted tanker is hit, what happens next?
Murrett:That would present a very difficult decision for the White House. Its less likely that a US warship would be struck due to its defensive capabilities, but a commercial vessel is more vulnerable. If that happens, there would have to be some form of response. What that response looks like would depend on the circumstances, but ideally it would be limited and proportional.
RFE/RL: Finally, what does success look like in the next few days?
Murrett:Success would be a diplomatic solution in which Iran agrees to free and open navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, refrains from further attacks on regional partners, and reduces destabilizing activities. Ideally, that would also include steps toward limiting its nuclear program, similar to past agreements, with inspections and transparency. That outcome would serve not just the United States and its allies, but also the Iranian people.
Robert Murrett: Hormuz Crisis ‘A Big Challenge’ For The US
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