This balancing act has emerged since Türkiye’s decision, at the start of the war in February 2022, to close its straits, which connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, to warships belonging to belligerent states, including Russia and Ukraine, in line with the Montreux Convention.
While the maritime agreement guarantees free passage for civilian vessels in peacetime, it also grants Ankara the right to regulate and limit military traffic during wars against both belligerent sides and other powers involved in the conflict, thereby endangering Turkish security.
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“Türkiye’s proper legal guardianship across its straits through its obligations under the Montreux Convention and international law has largely ensured Black Sea security, preventing the war from reaching regional proportions,” Teoman Ertugrul Tulun, an Ankara-based political analyst at Eurasian Research Center, a Turkish think tank, tells TRT World.
Since 2022, Türkiye has not allowed Ukrainian and Russian military assets to pass through its straits, which has naturally prevented both sides from reinforcing their naval assets, particularly warships, in the Black Sea, thereby helping de-escalate tensions.
Türkiye, a NATO state, has also not allowed Western military assets to pass through its straits into the Black Sea to reduce potential risks.
“We are ensuring the establishment of relative security in the Black Sea by minimising the harm inflicted by the warring parties on each other as much as possible,” Tulun says.
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Türkiye, as a significant naval power with substantial military capabilities, is also instrumental in fostering regional cooperation between the two non-warring littoral states, Bulgaria and Romania, to stabilise the Black Sea region, according to Tulun.
In 2024, when sea mines became a real threat to commercial shipping in the Black Sea, Türkiye, Bulgaria, and Romania, three NATO states, formed MCM Black Sea (Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group) to eliminate drifting naval mines in the region.
Since then, the task force has operated relatively smoothly, ensuring the safe passage of civilian vessels.
Mammadov agrees with Tulun, saying that Türkiye’s role in the Black Sea is diplomatic as well as geographic and military, as Ankara “remains essential to any serious discussion of maritime stability in the region.”
Strategic balancing
Türkiye’s balancing strategy has been recognised by both Western governments and Russia, with Ankara emerging as one of the few credible venues for potential talks between Putin and Zelenskyy.
“Türkiye’s position in the Ukraine war is best understood as strategic balancing with a clear interest in regional stability,” says Mammadov,
“Ankara has supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, refused to recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and maintained important defence cooperation with Kiev. At the same time, Türkiye has kept diplomatic channels open with Moscow and avoided fully joining the Western sanctions strategy,” he adds.
Mammadov draws attention to the fact that Ankara does not want a Russian victory that would “embolden” Moscow across areas from the Caucasus to Central Asia, a Turkic region, in which Türkiye has recently increased its influence while the Kremlin has lost considerable ground in countries like Armenia to Azerbaijan.
But Türkiye, which has strong energy and economic ties with Moscow, also wants “to preserve space for a durable settlement that reduces future escalation risks” with Russia, the analyst says.
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“That is why Türkiye occupies a distinctive position as a NATO ally with credibility in Kiev, working ties with Moscow, and direct security interests in the outcome of the war.”
Tulun echoes Mammadov’s comment.
“Türkiye, which has played a balancing role between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea region, has gained the trust of both warring sides, which understand our neutral position and positive behaviour aiming to stabilise tensions,” says the analyst.
